With the 2021 Major League Baseball season fast approaching, so too does the Fantasy baseball season, and your fantasy draft. With any fantasy draft the most important aspect for a manager is preparation, preparation, and preparation. Which includes the consulting of statistics of all natures, projections from websites of all kinds, and mock draft lists of every player. Yet the difficulty of figuring out the best strategy for your specific fantasy league is always increasing. What this list attempts is to ignore all counting stats in regular fantasy (runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Batting average) and looks at the advanced stats that showcase the ability to create those stats without the luck that is involved in the more basic stats. Isolated power (ISO) as defined by Fangraphs is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. It’s pretty simple to extrapolate the idea that more extra base hits will only increase the counting stats of fantasy baseball. With walk rate (BB%) and On- Base Percentage, you can better gage a players ability to score runs (the most basic tenet of Moneyball). Finally there is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) an improvement on Bill James’ created metric Weighted Runs, as James’ posits in his writing, runs are the most quantifiable statistic in baseball as basic rhetoric deems that the team that scores the most wins, so to best evaluate players is to deem how many runs that player created for his team. From Fangraphs, wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place. This list takes into greater accountability the rankings* of these statistics between players of the same position, to help determine not only the best players at each position but also a distinguishable understanding of team comparisons based on their player’s comparative rankings.
To best evaluate each player, the 2020 and 2019 seasons are being taken into account as well as the amalgamation of the projection of each player (provided from various sites), all combined to give us a possible view to the outcome of the 2021 season (injuries permitting). These lists are composed of every player that is eligible** at that position. These players are being compared to average replacement level players*** in order to show their value. Our next group is the third basemen, arguably the deepest position group in baseball.
*A note on rankings, as 2020 was an abbreviated season, all player ranks are counted with a minimum of only 40 plate appearances.
** The eligibility of each player is based on the yahoo website in which I looked it up, I am not responsible for their incorrectness. I believe their unilateral decision was to not take any eligibility away from players due to the covid season, but also allowed players to have gained eligibility during 2020. What results is a lot of players with multiple position eligibility. Some eligibility is based on MLB reports that they will move to that position and eventually earn that eligibility.
*** Replacement Player: .330 OBP/ .150 ISO/ 100 wRC+
(Proj Rank Overall is a ranking of their projections compared to every offensive player in Baseball)
The Elite
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels (Proj Overall Rank: 16)
The best Third basemen in fantasy excelled in his first year in Los Angeles in 2020, finishing with a .418 OBP and 154 wRC+. This coming after winning a World Series with the Nats where he recorded a .419 OBP and 154 wRC+. There’s very little evidence that Anthony Rendon will not finish the season with at least a .418 OBP and 154 wRC+.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (SS Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 9)
Alex Bregman, coming off an MVP runner-up season in 2019, and the cheating scandal, had a more lackluster campaign in 2020 that most expected, but was still pretty great. Primarily he plays Third Base, but still has eligibility at short. Compared to other power bat Third basemen, Bregman’s ISo is a little wanting, but he makes up for it in other ways.
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins (Proj Overall Rank: 20)
Donaldson had a little trouble acclimating himself in his first season in Minnesota but the former MVP still retains his elite batter’s eye which has given him the 4th and 1st best walk rates among Third basemen in the last two years. No matter the struggles with his wRC+ (he finished 12th and 16th among Third Basemen), his OBP and ISo show that it’s more due to luck than anything else. Even entering his age 35 season, Donaldson provides elite production.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (1B, 2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 19)
Muncy had a down year in 2020 in comparison to his own haughty stats, only achieving a 100 wRC+ (exactly average) a .330 OBP, and for the first time since 2016 finished with a sub .200 ISO (.196, average is .150). Yet in 2018-19 Muncy was a powerhouse of a player averaging a .383 OBP, a .283 ISO, and 35 home runs. He’s easily the best second baseman in baseball, and more than adequate to hold your Third Base roster spot down.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (Proj Overall Rank: 13)
Ramirez bounced back from his terrible 2019, with an insane 2020 season in which he was first among Third Basemen in ISo and third in wRC+. With Francisco Lindor being traded to the Mets, Ramirez finds himself in a similar situation as Xander Bogaerts, in that he is the sole remaining established run producer in his line-up (no offense Franmil Reyes).
Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds (Proj Overall Rank: 31)
Eugenio Suarez has been producing at a high level in near anonymity in Cincinnati for the past few years. Suarez has elite level power with the 2nd highest ISO among Third basemen in 2019 and 6th in 2020. While 2020 was a down year in wRC+ and OBP, Suarez’s walk percentage shows that Suarez has a decent batter’s eye, and that those numbers were more luck based.
The Really Good
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates (Proj Overall Rank: 104)
Ke’Bryan Hayes put together a preposterous final month of the 2020 season to land himself this high on the list. In his only month in Major League Baseball, Hayes made a mockery of pro pitching by hitting for a .304 ISo and .442 OBP. Small Sample Size fear should apply, but if the former 1st round pick can keep up the pace he started his career with, he could be a superstar.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (2B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 59)
Ian Happ is coming off two shortened seasons, the first due to an injury that delayed his start till July and last year’s Co-vid year. But in the combined 387 plate appearances he’s got a combined .275 ISo and 130 wRC+, and as long as he keeps Third base eligibility (which he probably won’t after this year) he’s a great pick at Third base.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (SS Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 28)
Primarily a Third Baseman who keeps his Shortstop eligibility, Machado is still one of the premiere players in Major League Baseball, if not quite the player he was 4 years ago. In the last full season of 2019, Machado mustered only a .335 OBP and a 108 wRC+, which was quite similar to his 2017 season, but in 2018 and 2020 Machado more than righted the ship. Last year he ended the shortened year with a .370 OBP and 149 wRC+.
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (Proj Overall Rank: 45)
Justin Turner is returning to the Dodgers, and while he doesn’t give you the power of most 3rd basemen, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball. He continually provided above average wRC+ and OBP at his position (12th in wRC+ in 19, 7th in 20, 11th in OBP in 19, 5th in 20) and though he just turned 36, he’s more than capable to keep providing value.
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays (2B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 87)
With the signing of Mark Semien, Biggio will most likely move to be primarily a third basemen, but as long as he’s eligible he’s one of the premier second basemen in fantasy. A hot prospect who’s the son of a Hall of Famer, Biggio has exceeded expectations with a .364 OBP in 19 (14th) and .375 in 20 (11th) with an elite batter’s eye. Like everyone in Toronto’s infield, Biggio could take a huge step forward in production if everyone performs.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (1B, 2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 84)
The reigning batting king, LeMahieu enters the season after finally being paid by the Yankees 90 million dollars over the next six years. If LeMahieu can contain the power output he had last year where he was 12th in ISo among Third basemen, LeMahieu could quickly become an above average Third baseman in fantasy.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (1B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 63)
Every year, I get really excited about Miguel’s Sano elite level power (1st and 5th in ISo among Third basemen in 19 and 2020) and above average walk rate, and think he’ll put it all together. Every year someone else spends a lot of money to buy him in my auction draft, and I get sad about it. Every year Sano disappoints and is dropped. Every year I pick him up and end up pleasantly surprised.
Matt Chapman, Oakland A’s (Proj Overall Rank: 41)
Before an injury derailed Chapman’s 2020 season, he was well on his way to another top 7 MVP finish like those in 2018 and 2019. HIs walk percentage was down but his ISo was at an all time high for him, if given the chance at a full season, he most likely would have evened out to the highly productive player he always is.
The Steady Tier
Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (2B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 84)
Jeff McNeil followed up his extremely impressive first full season in the majors by having an equally impressive second season in the majors. In both he batted a nearly identical .384 OBP, and .337 BABIP, and accrued a 142 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ in 19, and 20 respectively. He enters his age 29 season on a Mets team that actually has offensive weapons throughout the line-up.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (Proj Overall Rank: 107)
Diaz leveraged a career best walk rate to have a career best OBP to finish with a 138 wRC+ (9th among Third Basemen). His lack in ISo is the only thing holding him back from fantasy superstardom.
JD Davis, New York Mets (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 94)
JD Davis has a great walk rate and on base percentage but saw a pretty big drop in ISo in 2020 when he fell from .220 to .142. The hope that it is only a small sample blip and that the Mets have a quietly loaded line-up, making Davis a Third Basemen to keep tabs on as a sleeper.
Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds (1B, 2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 90)
Moustakas’ whole allure is that his eligibility allows 1st base power (8th in ISo in 19, 12th in 20 among first basemen) while playing him at 2nd and 3rd (8th and 11th in ISo among Third Basemen). The Reds quietly have a pretty fun middle of the line-up which may allow Moustakas to produce in 2021.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 37)
It feels impossible to predict Rafael Devers as a player, hailed as a top 10 third basemen the last two years, Devers has promptly fallen on his face to start the season. Yet in 2019 Devers finished 12th in ISO among Third Basemen and 10th in wRC+ (just behind Max Muncy). Devers again had a tough first 60 games to the season in 2020, with the problem being that those 60 games encompassed the full season.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (Proj Overall Rank: 40)
Bryant was so bad last year that it dragged him down all the way to number 20 in my ranks. With 34 games of statistics (small sample alert!) Bryant ended up 43rd among Third Basemen with a below replacement level .143 ISo and 48th in wRC+. There’s no reason to believe he can’t bounce back to the guy who had .382 OBP and 135 wRC+ in 2019.
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 82)
The White Sox Third Baseman actually improved his biggest problem area when he lifted his walk percentage from 7.7 to 12.1 in 2020, but he regressed in pretty much every other area. The worst of which was a drop from 140 wRC+ in 2019 to 93 in 2020. The expectations are sky high in Chicago for the White Sox, and Moncada returning to his 2019 form could pay big dividends.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (Proj Overall Rank: 42)
Like his new NL Central-mate, Kris Bryan, Nolan Arenado had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year in 2020 that anchored him down to this spot. In 48 games in 2020, Arenado had his lowest ISo, OBP, and wRC+ since his 2013 rookie season. Now with a new contract and in St. Louis (very much not Colorado elevation-wise), Arenado looks to return to the guy who averaged 40 home runs over the last 5 full seasons.
The Still Pretty Good
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (1B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 111)
The only thing bad about Bohm’s debut season in 2020, was a sub replacement player ISo (.144), if the 24 year old can turn some singles into doubles, and doubles into home runs, he’ll quickly become a top ten fantasy Third Baseman.
Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals (1B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 119)
Perfectly adequate Third Basemen.
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners (Proj Overall Rank: 117)
Once upon a time Kyle Seager was borderline draftable. Too many injuries and too little production have placed him at this rank.
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