With the 2021 Major League Baseball season fast approaching, so too does the Fantasy baseball season, and your fantasy draft. With any fantasy draft the most important aspect for a manager is preparation, preparation, and preparation. Which includes the consulting of statistics of all natures, projections from websites of all kinds, and mock draft lists of every player. Yet the difficulty of figuring out the best strategy for your specific fantasy league is always increasing. What this list attempts is to ignore all counting stats in regular fantasy (runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Batting average) and looks at the advanced stats that showcase the ability to create those stats without the luck that is involved in the more basic stats. Isolated power (ISO) as defined by Fangraphs is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. It’s pretty simple to extrapolate the idea that more extra base hits will only increase the counting stats of fantasy baseball. With walk rate (BB%) and On- Base Percentage, you can better gage a players ability to score runs (the most basic tenet of Moneyball). Finally there is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) an improvement on Bill James’ created metric Weighted Runs, as James’ posits in his writing, runs are the most quantifiable statistic in baseball as basic rhetoric deems that the team that scores the most wins, so to best evaluate players is to deem how many runs that player created for his team. From Fangraphs, wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place. This list takes into greater accountability the rankings* of these statistics between players of the same position, to help determine not only the best players at each position but also a distinguishable understanding of team comparisons based on their player’s comparative rankings.
To best evaluate each player, the 2020 and 2019 seasons are being taken into account as well as the amalgamation of the projection of each player (provided from various sites), all combined to give us a possible view to the outcome of the 2021 season (injuries permitting). These lists are composed of every player that is eligible** at that position. These players are being compared to average replacement level players*** in order to show their value. . Next up is First Basemen, this position is deep with flexibility and power.
*A note on rankings, as 2020 was an abbreviated season, all player ranks are counted with a minimum of only 40 plate appearances.
** The eligibility of each player is based on the yahoo website in which I looked it up, I am not responsible for their incorrectness. I believe their unilateral decision was to not take any eligibility away from players due to the covid season, but also allowed players to have gained eligibility during 2020. What results is a lot of players with multiple position eligibility. Some eligibility is based on MLB reports that they will move to that position and eventually earn that eligibility.
*** Replacement Player: .330 OBP/ .150 ISO/ 100 wRC+
(Proj Rank Overall is a ranking of their projections compared to every offensive player in Baseball)
The Elite
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (Proj Overall Rank: 7)
The best first baseman in baseball, Freddie Freeman does it all, finishing first in OBP and wRC+ amongst first baseman last year, a year after finishing 4th and 5th in those categories the year before. He’s a first rounder, the first basemen you should feel most comfortable risking your money on in an auction.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 6)
Bellinger was only so-so last year, meaning he was near the middle in almost every statistical category among other first baseman. But in 2019, Cody Bellinger was the MVP of the NL and for good reason, he finished first in OBP and wRC+ and 2nd in ISo among first baseman. Bellinger is still only 25 years old, and is the anchor of a truly deep Los Angeles Dodgers’ line-up.
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies (Proj Overall Rank: 15)
Hoskins burst onto the major league landscape in 2017 with a truly astonishing first two months of his career where he had a .359 ISo and a 158 wRC+ over 50 games where he hit 18 home runs. In the three seasons following that initial outburst, he’s never quite matched those numbers, but he has shown the making of an elite batter’s eye combined with above average power. One caveat to Hoskins, which the statistics can’t take into account, is that Hoskins had Tommy John Surgery on his non throwing arm at the end of the 2020 season, and while expected to pick up where he left off last year with a .384 OBP and .258 ISO, there’s a chance he has a hitch to start the season.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (2B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 19)
Muncy had a down year in 2020 in comparison to his own haughty stats, only achieving a 100 wRC+ (exactly average) a .330 OBP, and for the first time since 2016 finished with a sub .200 ISO (.196, average is .150). Yet in 2018-19 Muncy was a powerhouse of a player averaging a .383 OBP, a .283 ISO, and 35 home runs. He’s easily the best second baseman in baseball, and more than adequate to hold your 1B roster spot down.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets (Proj Overall Rank: 22)
Like his NL East counterpart Rhys Hoskins, Pete Alonso burst onto the scene with reckless abandon in 2019, finishing 3rd in ISO and 2nd in wRC+ among first basemen. While his 2020 season didn't go as well, dropping to 10th and 22nd respectively in ISO and wRC+, there’s no reason to believe the 26 year old won’t rebound to his 2019 form.
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs (Proj Overall Rank: 30)
One of the best and most reliable first basemen in the league, Anthony Rizzo had a quasi down year last season after dropping from 16th to 30th in ISo from 19-20, Rizzo looks to rebound with a full year to work with.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox (C Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 51)
Although primarily a catcher, Grandal also has First base eligibility, he hits for power, but still has an elite ability to get on base. He also has eligibility to be a first baseman if you can find a better catcher to put there.
The Steady Tier
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 56)
Belt has quietly been one of the more effective hitter in baseball for years, but due to bad luck and poor line-up placement, had difficulty accumulating stupid stuff like runs and RBIs. It also helped that is ISo rate jumped from .169 in 2019 to .280 in 2020. Now healthy and finally entrenched with starting player time, Belt should continue to be a value in fantasy for the 2021 season.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals (Proj Overall Rank: 36)
Once, the crowned prince of fantasy baseball, Goldschmidt has slowly moved his way closer to the mortals, but still holds a lot of potential for fantasy owners. Thanks to an elite ability to get on base, Goldschmidt is able to combat his ISo dropping from .265 to .243 to .226 to .162 and still achieve a top 10 finish in wRC+ among pitchers.
Matt Olson, Oakland A’s (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 31)
Olson is a three true outcome player through and through, he continually shows an above average batter’s eye (15.7 walk rate in 2020) and power (36 home runs in 2019), but with very little hitting in between (303 OBP in 2020. His career OBP of .338 points to Matt Olson’s weird drop in productivity as a fluke, and Olson is a prime candidate to be much better than he was last year, a year in which he was still pretty good.
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (2B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 49)
Primarily a second baseman for the Rays last year, Lowe has first base eligibility and will log more than a few innings at the spot this year. He was a revelation last year for the Tampa Bay World Series run, finishing 7th in ISO and 9th in wRC+ amongst first basemen. He’s a much better fit at second base than first, but still pretty good.
Luke Voit, New York Yankees (Proj Overall Rank: 56)
So it turns out Luke Voit isn’t a fluke. Now 2 full seasons from being a throwaway in a throwaway trade between the Cardinals and Yankees, Voit has claimed the first base spot in New York and like Lou Gehrig with Wally Pipp (but not that extreme) refuses to give it up. Voit went insane last year in the shortened season, hitting more home runs in the 60 games season (22) then he did in the full season of 2019 (21) and finishing 3rd in ISo among first basemen.
Mark Canha (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 44)
Mark Canha is the lost super star of the Oakland A’s, where the two Matts (Chapman and Olson) get a majority of the headlines, but Canha has been if not equally productive than more so. Canha finished 2nd among First Basemen in wRC+ in 2019 and in the wacky 2020 still managed to finish 17th with 125.
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 72)
Trey Mancini enters the 2021 season, cancer free, which is more important than anything else. He returns a year removed from an extremely impressive 2019 in which he had a .364 OBP, a .244 ISo and 134 wRC+, far above average in all three categories. Whether he can bounce back from cancer in his kidney is the only question mark surrounding Mancini.
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 42)
It seems like wild to put the reigning MVP at this position in my rankings, I know, but Jose Abreu has been able to put 60 games together of that excellence before, he just hasn’t really done it (to that level) for a full season. The only time he came close was when he walked to the Rookie of the year award in 2014, when he was 27, he’s now a just turned 34. His 2019 year where he ended up with a .219 ISo and 114 wRC+ is much more likely to reoccur then the career year that was 2020.
The Question Marks
Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals (Proj Overall Rank: 73)
The baseball player not the guitarist, Carlos Santana is a baseball player who doesn’t like to have two good years in a row. After having a great year in 2017, Santana signed with the Phillies in 2018, only to be a disappointment and go back to Cleveland and have a great 2019. In 2020, Santana had a bad year and has since moved to Kansas City where he’ll have ample opportunity to possibly have another great year. The soon to be 35 year old still has an elite batter’s eye, and will likely hit clean-up in the Royals line-up. Keep an eye out for insurance.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (2B 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 84)
LeMahieu is best suited as your second basemen if you draft him, he still has first base eligibility thanks to a revolving door at first base the last two years for the Yankees before settling on Luke Voit. LeMahieu has two batting titles which helps in comparison to other first basemen since his ISo was 29th among them in 2019 and 17th in 2020. Unlike most other first basemen though, LeMahieu has above average wRC+ 8th and 2nd respectively.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (Proj Overall Rank: 69)
Arguably the greatest hitter of the 21st century not named Mike Trout, Joey Votto is on his long trot into the sunset of his career. Though still blessed with one of the greatest batting eyes in league history, Votto has to really run into the ball to gain power in comparison to every other first basemen. Last year his ISo actually went up for the first time since 2017, though turning 38 in September, Votto is one of the smartest players in the league and could put it all together again to be a starting fantasy first baseman.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 63)
Every year, I get really excited about Miguel’s Sano elite level power (1st and 9th in ISo among 1st basemen in 19 and 2020) and above average walk rate, and think he’ll put it all together. Every year someone else spends a lot of money to buy him in my auction draft, and I get sad about it. Every year Sano disappoints and is dropped. Every year I pick him up and end up pleasantly surprised.
Josh Bell, Washington Nationals (Proj Overall Rank: 39)
Josh Bell with the Pirates was quietly one of the best first basemen in baseball, finishing top 10 in ISo, OBP, and wRC+ among his position. The shortened 2020 did not go as well for the newly acquired National, where he was near the bottom in almost every statistic. The rebound is highly likely, but the fear of last season’s failure should make you at least hesitate.
Scraping for Sleepers
Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 23)
Vlad’s results in the majors have just not caught up with the hype of his arrival. Still his projections outshine the two years of stats we’ve seen, someone will pay for the potential, you don’t have to, but I don’t blame you if you do.
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 95)
The allure of a first round prospect has propped up Myers in the past, but now he’s a legit sleeper to put it all together to become a great offensive force on a great offensive team. His floor isn’t that terrible either so he’s kind of worth the risk.
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 145)
This is pretty much based on the fact that he had the second best ISo last year among first basemen.
Ji-Man Choi, Tampa Bay Rays (Proj Overall Rank: 81)
On-base machine with very little power, has shown more power in the past then the middling .180 he had in 2020.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (3B eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 107)
More of a third basemen, but an on base machine with very little power. there’s a lot of them in Tampa.
MIke Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds (2B 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 90)
Moustakas’ whole allure is that his eligibility allows 1st base power (8th in ISo in 19, 12th in 20) while playing him at 2nd and 3rd.
If you have fantasy questions or just want to yell at me about my rankings, hit me up @kevin_seamus on twitter or @loudphilliesguy on IG or e-mail me at seamusfennell@gmail.com. If you wanna be cool and throw a few bucks my way for doing a shit ton of research for you, that's @kevin-fennell-6 on venmo.
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