With the 2021 Major League Baseball season fast approaching, so too does the Fantasy baseball season, and your fantasy draft. With any fantasy draft the most important aspect for a manager is preparation, preparation, and preparation. Which includes the consulting of statistics of all natures, projections from websites of all kinds, and mock draft lists of every player. Yet the difficulty of figuring out the best strategy for your specific fantasy league is always increasing. What this list attempts is to ignore all counting stats in regular fantasy (runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Batting average) and looks at the advanced stats that showcase the ability to create those stats without the luck that is involved in the more basic stats. Isolated power (ISO) as defined by Fangraphs is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. It’s pretty simple to extrapolate the idea that more extra base hits will only increase the counting stats of fantasy baseball. With walk rate (BB%) and On- Base Percentage, you can better gage a players ability to score runs (the most basic tenet of Moneyball). Finally there is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) an improvement on Bill James’ created metric Weighted Runs, as James’ posits in his writing, runs are the most quantifiable statistic in baseball as basic rhetoric deems that the team that scores the most wins, so to best evaluate players is to deem how many runs that player created for his team. From Fangraphs, wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place. This list takes into greater accountability the rankings* of these statistics between players of the same position, to help determine not only the best players at each position but also a distinguishable understanding of team comparisons based on their player’s comparative rankings.
To best evaluate each player, the 2020 and 2019 seasons are being taken into account as well as the amalgamation of the projection of each player (provided from various sites), all combined to give us a possible view to the outcome of the 2021 season (injuries permitting). These lists are composed of every player that is eligible** at that position. These players are being compared to average replacement level players*** in order to show their value. Our next group is the shortstops, a deep pool of talent that can provide lots of value, and then a steep cavernous drop off to the rest.
*A note on rankings, as 2020 was an abbreviated season, all player ranks are counted with a minimum of only 40 plate appearances.
** The eligibility of each player is based on the yahoo website in which I looked it up, I am not responsible for their incorrectness. I believe their unilateral decision was to not take any eligibility away from players due to the covid season, but also allowed players to have gained eligibility during 2020. What results is a lot of players with multiple position eligibility. Some eligibility is based on MLB reports that they will move to that position and eventually earn that eligibility.
*** Replacement Player: .330 OBP/ .150 ISO/ 100 wRC+
(Proj Rank Overall is a ranking of their projections compared to every offensive player in Baseball)
The Elite
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 9)
The known commodity that is Alex Bregman, tops this list. Bregman, coming off an MVP runner-up season in 2019, and the cheating scandal, had a more lackluster campaign in 2020 than most expected, but was still pretty great. Primarily he plays Third Base, but with his eligibility at Short, he stays atop here by being top 3 among shortstops in pretty much every offensive category including 1st in ISO, OBP, and wRC+ in 2019.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (Proj Overall Rank: 12)
The only reason Tatis sits behind Bregman is that Tatis wasn’t quite at the same level in 2019, when you know, he was 20. The newly turned 22 and newly signed 340 million dollar Tatis has developed quite a bit since then, and in my opinion is the best player in all of fantasy baseball.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 29)
The X-man had a slight down year last season, where he found himself in the middle of the pack among shortstops in ISo (14th) and wRC+ (10th) after finishing top 9 in both in 2019. This can easily be due to the shortened season, but also it doesn’t help that Mookie Betts was traded. Now with the departures of Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts is even more alone. Will that lead to less production or will he take on even more value as the lone run producer (Sorry JD Martinez)?
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 28)
Another primary Third Baseman who keeps his Shortstop eligibility, Machado is still one of the premiere players in Major League Baseball, if maybe not quite the titan he was 4 years ago. In the last full season of 2019, Machado mustered only a .335 OBP and a 108 wRC+, which was quite similar to his 2017 season, but in 2018 and 2020 Machado more than righted the ship. Last year he ended the shortened year with a .370 OBP and 149 wRC+.
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies (Proj Overall Rank: 38)
The question with Story is the same question that plagues every great player for the Rockies, how much is his effectiveness due to playing in Colorado? Story was 5th and 6th among Shortstops in ISo the last two years, which is what helps aid his case on this list. His walk rate is average, but his ability to hit in Colorado buoys his OBP and helps aid his wRC+ and ISo.
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (Proj Overall Rank: 21)
Seager bounced back from two injury plagued seasons, to being the player we all fell in love with in 2016-2017, when Seager was an MVP candidate and the young shortstop prospect everyone drools over. Turning 27 this season, Seager last year ended up 2nd in ISo and 5th in wRC+ among shortstops, and looks to be the player we all thought he would be on a loaded Dodgers team.
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals (Proj Overall Rank: 52)
Trea Turner may seem a little low on this list, because steals don’t really have an applicable advanced stat, particularly since steals depend so much on circumstances and feeling, it’s impossible to predict. In 1992 New York Met Vince Coleman just stopped trying to steal bases, not because he wasn’t fast or couldn’t but because he got into a fight with the manager about stealing bases. That all to say, Trea Turner has increased value in fantasy because he’s one of the few dependable base stealers in the entire league (averaging 40 steals in each of the last 4 full seasons) , and by far the best base stealer who is also a great player, which is what Turner is. Turner last year finished 2nd in OBP and wRC+ and 4th in ISo among Shortstops, with the hope he keeps stealing bases, Turner should be valued higher than this list even suggests.
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees (Proj Overall Rank: 84)
Torres burst into the majors in 2018 with a huge year as a 22 year old, in 2019 he made the next step in his first full season in the majors, finishing 7th among shortstops in ISo and 9th in wRC+. In 2020, Torres experienced a hiccup in his descent to superstardom, seeing his ISo drop precipitously, and wRC+ along with it. Now, still only 24, Torres looks to make a leap back into the superstar trajectory.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros (Proj Overall Rank: 54)
“How much do you think the cheating helped the Astros?” Is a great question you should be asking about all Astro players a year removed from the scandal. Correa had a severe downturn from 2019-2020, and while injuries played a big part of that, when Correa played, he didn’t particularly play well, finishing in the bottom third among Shortstops in most offensive stats. Yet Correa was one of the best Shortstops in baseball in 2019 when he helped lead the Astros to the World Series (no matter the circumstances) and had a .289 ISo and a 143 wRC+.
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Proj Overall Rank: 68)
Bo Bichette followed up a great rookie season in 2019 with a nice step in the right direction in 2020. He still struggles with his walk rate (6.6 in 19, 4.3 in 20) which will always hurt his OBP and his ability to score runs, but his top 8 ISo power among shortstops will allow him to make it up in other ways on a great offensive Blue Jays line-up.
The Steady Tier
Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays (2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 93)
Semien signed with the Blue Jays with the idea that he would move to Second Base from Shortstop due to Bo Bichette’s existence. Semien in 2019 was an MVP candidate for good reason, with a .237 ISo and 138 WRc+, but his 2020 campaign was not as auspicious. He regressed in all major statistical categories, and looked much more like a replacement player than an MVP. He did begin to right the ship in September and the playoffs which is why his projections have him as a buy low commodity.
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (Proj Overall Rank: 66)
The newly made New York Met, Francisco Lindor is two years (and an ankle injury) removed from his last offensively elite season in 2018, but still has all sorts of upside.
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox (Proj Overall Rank: 144)
Tim Anderson goes against a lot of my calculations due to his subpar batter’s eye (2.9 BB% in 19, 4.3 in 2020), but he still bats .330, so his wRC+ is top 8 among shortstops, but he hits a lot of singles so it hurts his ISo. He’s confounding is my point, and he looks to continue to confound in a stacked Chicago White Sox line-up.
The Question Marks
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (2B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 65)
In 2019, Ketel Marte was one of the best Shortstops in fantasy, ranking second among Shortstops in wRC+ and finishing fourth in ISO. Everything that went well for Marte in 19, went poorly in 2020, going from 32 Home runs to 2, an ISo of .264 to .122, wRC+ from 150 to 90. The question becomes, which Marte are you paying for?
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres (1B, 2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 157)
The question with Cronenworth is if he can continue what he started last year when he was 15th in ISO and 11th in wRC+ among shortstops in the short season. In a stacked San Diego line-up, every player on that team deserves to get an extended look.
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves (Proj Overall Rank: 140)
Swanson enjoyed his best season as a pro in 2020, but still has huge holes in his offensive game despite his high prospect expectations. He’s entrenched in the mid tier in all offensive rankings, but he’s only 27 and can still develop.
Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays (Proj Overall Rank: 167)
Adames had a huge year for the AL Champion Rays in 2020, due in part to a huge surge in his power, where he dropped from 28th in IS0 among Shortstops in 2019 to 7th. Yet his season was hobbled by a subpar finish in September and the playoffs, so it’s possible that Adames could have ended up right around where he was in a full season of statistics in 2019, when he finished with a .317 OBP and 98 wRC+.
Scraping for Sleepers
Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners (2B, 3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 201)
Dylan Moore was quietly 5th and 9th among Shortstops in ISO and wRC+ in 2020 over 38 games and 135 plate appearances. He played all over the diamond and the Mariners still have no idea where they plan to use him in 2021. His projections have him closer to the player who in 2019 had a .302 OBP and 88 wRC+, but projections are like weather reports, constantly wrong.
Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals (Proj Overall Rank: 126)
Paul DeJong took a big step back in 2020 after a 2019 season in which he was a pleasant surprise with a .211 ISo. In 2020 he was in the bottom tier statistically across the board, his projections have him at almost exactly average among Shortstops
Miguel Rojas, Miami Marlins (Proj Overall Rank: 207)
Miguel Rojas took a huge stride in 2020 by raising his walk percentage from 6.1 to 11.2 (good enough for 4th among Shortstops), which helped raise his OBP 61 points and made him seem like a viable young Shortstop for the future. His projections and Marlins prospect Jazz Chisholm have him not as viable.
Jon Berti, Miami Marlins (2B, 3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 207)
First in walk rate in 2020 and fourth in OBP among second basemen, very little of anything else.
Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins (2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 142)
The newly deemed second basemen with the arrival of Andrelton Simmons, Polanco had a much better 2019 season than 2020, but the 2019 was just above average.
Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies (Proj Overall Rank: 152)
Didi deserves a longer look than most, due to injury slowed 2019 anchoring down his statistics. Didi was the most steady Phillie not named Bryce last year, and garnered a very respectable .205 ISO and 117 wRC+
JP Crawford, Seattle Mariners (Proj Overall Rank: 200)
2020 Gold Glove winner.
Ha Seong-Kim, San Diego Padres (2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 192)
It’s unclear if Kim will gain enough playing time with Jake Cronenworth in front of him, but Kim was one of the best hitters in Korean Baseball the last three years. Coming over to America can cause issues for some players, but also allows a mystery around them that could devalue a player who could be great and in an extremely good situation.
If you have fantasy questions or just want to yell at me about my rankings, hit me up @kevin_seamus on twitter or @loudphilliesguy on IG or e-mail me at seamusfennell@gmail.com. If you wanna be cool and throw a few bucks my way for doing a shit ton of research for you, that's @kevin-fennell-6 on venmo.
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