With the 2021 Major League Baseball season fast approaching, so too does the Fantasy baseball season, and your fantasy draft. With any fantasy draft the most important aspect for a manager is preparation, preparation, and preparation. Which includes the consulting of statistics of all natures, projections from websites of all kinds, and mock draft lists of every player. Yet the difficulty of figuring out the best strategy for your specific fantasy league is always increasing. What this list attempts is to ignore all counting stats in regular fantasy (runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Batting average) and looks at the advanced stats that showcase the ability to create those stats without the luck that is involved in the more basic stats. Isolated power (ISO) as defined by Fangraphs is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. It’s pretty simple to extrapolate the idea that more extra base hits will only increase the counting stats of fantasy baseball. With walk rate (BB%) and On- Base Percentage, you can better gage a players ability to score runs (the most basic tenet of Moneyball). Finally there is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) an improvement on Bill James’ created metric Weighted Runs, as James’ posits in his writing, runs are the most quantifiable statistic in baseball as basic rhetoric deems that the team that scores the most wins, so to best evaluate players is to deem how many runs that player created for his team. From Fangraphs, wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place. This list takes into greater accountability the rankings* of these statistics between players of the same position, to help determine not only the best players at each position but also a distinguishable understanding of team comparisons based on their player’s comparative rankings.
To best evaluate each player, the 2020 and 2019 seasons are being taken into account as well as the amalgamation of the projection of each player (provided from various sites), all combined to give us a possible view to the outcome of the 2021 season (injuries permitting). These lists are composed of every player that is eligible** at that position. These players are being compared to average replacement level players*** in order to show their value. Next up is Second Basemen, this position is as shallow a ball pit, but half as fun.
*A note on rankings, as 2020 was an abbreviated season, all player ranks are counted with a minimum of only 40 plate appearances.
** The eligibility of each player is based on the yahoo website in which I looked it up, I am not responsible for their incorrectness. I believe their unilateral decision was to not take any eligibility away from players due to the covid season, but also allowed players to have gained eligibility during 2020. What results is a lot of players with multiple position eligibility. Some eligibility is based on MLB reports that they will move to that position and eventually earn that eligibility.
*** Replacement Player: .330 OBP/ .150 ISO/ 100 wRC+
(Proj Rank Overall is a ranking of their projections compared to every offensive player in Baseball)
The Elite
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 19)
Muncy had a down year in 2020 in comparison to previous haughty stats, only achieving a 100 wRC+ (exactly average) a .330 OBP, and for the first time since 2016 finished with a sub .200 ISO (.196, average is .150). Yet in 2018-19 Muncy was a powerhouse of a player averaging a .383 OBP, a .283 ISO, and 35 home runs. He’s easily the best second baseman in baseball.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 59)
Ian Happ is coming off two shortened seasons, the first due to an injury that delayed his start till July and last year’s Co-vid year. But in the combined 387 plate appearances he’s got a combined .275 ISo and 130 wRC+, and as long as he keeps second base eligibility (which he probably won’t after this year) he’s a great pick at second base.
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (1B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 49)
Brandon Lowe was a revelation last year for the Tampa Bay World Series run, finishing 1st in ISO and 2nd in wRC+ amongst second basemen. He’s got the pedigree of a great walk rate and will continue to show up in OBP.
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays (3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 87)
With the signing of Mark Semien, Biggio will most likely move to be primarily a third basemen, but as long as he’s eligible he’s one of the premier second basemen in fantasy. A hot prospect who’s the son of a Hall of Famer, Biggio has exceeded expectations with a .364 OBP in 19 (9th) and .375 in 20 (6th) with an elite batter’s eye. Like everyone in Toronto’s infield, Biggio could take a huge step forward in production if everyone performs.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: T-84)
The reigning batting king, LeMahieu enters the season after finally being paid by the Yankees 90 million dollars over the next six years. If LeMahieu can contain the power output he had last year where he was 5th in ISo among second basemen, LeMahieu could quickly become the best second baseman in fantasy.
The Steady Tier
Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: T-84)
Jeff McNeil followed up his extremely impressive first full season in the majors by having an equally impressive second season. In both he batted a nearly identical .384 OBP, and .337 BABIP, and accrued a 142 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ in 19, and 20 respectively. He enters his age 29 season on a Mets team that actually has offensive weapons throughout the line-up.
Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays (SS Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 93)
Semien signed with the Blue Jays with the idea that he would move to Second Base from Shortstop due to Bo Bichette’s existence. Semien in 2019 was an MVP candidate for good reason, with a .237 ISo and 138 wRC+, but his 2020 campaign was not as auspicious. He regressed in all major statistical categories, and looked much more like a replacement player than an MVP. He did begin to right the ship in September and the playoffs which is why his projections have him as a buy low commodity.
Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 90)
Moustakas’ whole allure is that his eligibility allows 1st base power (8th in ISo in 19, 12th in 20 among first basemen) while playing him at 2nd (6th and 4th in ISO among second basemen) and 3rd. The Reds quietly have a pretty fun middle of the line-up which may allow Moustakas to produce in 2021.
Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 128)
La Stella comes to the Giants after being traded from Los Angeles to Oakland in the middle of last season. La Stella was an all star in 2019 after a very strong first half and followed that up with a very productive 2020 that saw him with the 7th best OBP among second basemen and the 8th best wRC+. He is a highly reliable offensive commodity with some upside to be even better with luck.
The Question Marks
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (SS, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 65)
In 2019, Ketel Marte was the best 2nd basemen in fantasy, leading all 2nd basemen in wRC+ and finishing fourth in ISO. Everything that went well for Marte in 19, went poorly in 2020, going from 32 Home runs to 2, an ISo of .264 to .122, wRC+ from 150 to 90. The question becomes, which Marte are you paying for?
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres (1B, SS Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 157)
The question with Cronenworth is if he can continue what he started last year when he was 15th in ISO and 11th in wRC+ among second basemen in the short season. In a stacked San Diego line-up, every player on that team deserves to get an extended look.
Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers (1B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 97)
Hiura like Marte is a player of two completely different seasons, his 19 year showed a player of great promise of power and getting on base when he finished 2nd among second basemen in ISo and 8th in OBP. His precipitous fall occurred throughout 2020 and Hiura regressed to 11th in ISo and 37th in OBP. HIs so-so walk rate points to the 2020 Hiura as the more realistic version of Hiura on base percentage, but the power surge of 2019 (19 home runs in 84 games) could just as likely return as Hiura moving to first base with the signing of Kolten Wong.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 125)
Gurriel will play a majority of his 2021 season in the outfield and most likely will lose second base eligibility by 2022, but this season, he might be an interesting player to put in your second base spot. His ability to create runs puts him as a top 12 player among second basemen, while his on base skills leave much to be desired, he’s another promising young player on the Toronto Blue Jays.
Ausin Nola, San Diego Padres (C, 1B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 184)
Can he repeat it, is a key question in a lot of the players in this tier, none more so than Austin Nola. Nola was brought up to Seattle two years ago as a 29 year old back up first basemen, best known as Aaron Nola’s brother, but became surprisingly the biggest trade piece at last year’s deadline. What makes Nola really important in fantasy is his multiple position eligibility after he played second a bunch before going behind the plate. Last year Nola was a huge surprise, finishing with a .353 OBP and 126 wRC+ good for 17th and 9th respectively amongst second basemen. His abbreviated 2019 season (267 PAs) shows that Nola has some pedigree to continue at that pace, and playing for Padres makes Nola extremely attractive as a fantasy player.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (2B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 60)
The last two years have not been great for the former MVP, Jose Altuve. Thanks to injuries and possibly the removal of trash cans from the stadium, Altuve has regressed to what most people expected him to be: a perfectly adequate second basemen. His 2020 campaign was really not good, but he’s been elite before and is about to turn 31.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves (Proj Overall Rank: 78)
One of the few purely second basemen on this list, Albies was supposed to be the second basemen prospect to end all second baseman prospects. Yet that hasn’t quite panned out as planned with Albies struggling to be in the top 15 in any of the counting categories among the position group. He’s still young and has the potential to be as good as his prospect profile made him out to be.
Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins (3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 124)
After the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons, Arraez was officially moved to the outfield, but still his second base eligibility remains. Arraez has the ability to be great, as demonstrated with the .399 OBP he achieved in 2019 over 93 games, but has yet to be able to put it towards his wRC+. He’s still only 23 years old and could take a huge step this year no matter the position he plays.
Scraping for Sleepers
Nick Solak, Texas Rangers (3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 161)
Solak had a dynamic kick off to his professional career when he had a .393 OBP and a 125 wRC+ over 135 plate appearances in 2019, but Solak’s 2020 season is probably a more reliable indicator of Solak’s career trajectory. In that season, Solak mustered a weakly .077 ISO (45th among second basmen) and a limp 86 wRC+ (36th).
Asdrubal Cabrera, Arizona Diamondbacks (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 155)
Really great defensive second baseman who has been passable as an offensive threat in the past.
Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners (SS, 3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 201)
Dylan Moore was quietly 3rd among second basemen in ISO and wRC+ in 2020 over 38 games and 135 plate appearances. He played all over the diamond and the Mariners still have no idea where they plan to use him. His projections have him closer to the player who in 2019 had a .302 OBP and 88 wRC+, but projections are like weather reports, constantly wrong.
Colin Moran, Pittsburgh Pirates (1B, 3B Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 165)
Colin Moran had the 7th best ISo among second basemen last year.
Jon Berti, Miami Marlins (SS, 3B, OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 207)
Third in walk rate in 2020 and second in OBP among second basemen, very little of anything else.
Kolten Wong, Milwaukee Brewers (Proj Overall Rank: 172)
Has a history of getting on base and is playing for a decent offensive Brewers team.
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres (OF Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 158)
Another Padre who gets a bump by just playing for the Padres. In 2018 he had above average OBP (.335) ISO (.202) and wRC+ (110), but those stats don’t contribute to this ranking system.
Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins (SS Eligible) (Proj Overall Rank: 142)
The newly deemed second basemen with the arrival of Andrelton Simmons, Polanco had a much better 2019 season than 2020, but the 2019 was only slightly above average.
If you have fantasy questions or just want to yell at me about my rankings, hit me up @kevin_seamus on twitter or @loudphilliesguy on IG or e-mail me at seamusfennell@gmail.com. If you wanna be cool and throw a few bucks my way for doing a shit ton of research for you, that's @kevin-fennell-6 on venmo.
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