2021 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Catchers
With the 2021 Major League Baseball season fast approaching, so too does the Fantasy baseball season, and your fantasy draft. With any fantasy draft the most important aspect for a manager is preparation, preparation, and preparation. Which includes the consulting of statistics of all natures, projections from websites of all kinds, and mock draft lists of every player. Yet the difficulty of figuring out the best strategy for your specific fantasy league is always increasing. What this list attempts is to ignore all counting stats in regular fantasy (runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Batting average) and looks at the advanced stats that showcase the ability to create those stats without the luck that is involved in the more basic stats. Isolated power (ISO) as defined by Fangraphs is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. It’s pretty simple to extrapolate the idea that more extra base hits will only increase the counting stats of fantasy baseball. With walk rate (BB%) and On- Base Percentage, you can better gage a players ability to score runs (the most basic tenet of Moneyball). Finally there is Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) an improvement on Bill James’ created metric Weighted Runs, as James’ posits in his writing, runs are the most quantifiable statistic in baseball as basic rhetoric deems that the team that scores the most wins, so to best evaluate players is to deem how many runs that player created for his team. From Fangraphs wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place. This list takes into greater accountability the rankings* of these statistics between players of the same position, to help determine not only the best players at each position but also a distinguishable understanding of team comparisons based on their player’s comparative rankings.
To best evaluate each player, the 2020 and 2019 seasons are being taken into account as well as the amalgamation of the projection of each player (provided from various sites), all combined to give us a possible view to the outcome of the 2021 season (injuries permitting). These lists are composed of every player that is eligible** at that position. These players are being compared to average replacement level players*** in order to show their value. Our next group is the third basemen, arguably the deepest position group in baseball.
*A note on rankings, as 2020 was an abbreviated season, all player ranks are counted with a minimum of only 40 plate appearances.
** The eligibility of each player is based on the yahoo website in which I looked it up, I am not responsible for their incorrectness. I believe their unilateral decision was to not take any eligibility away from players due to the covid season, but also allowed players to have gained eligibility during 2020. What results is a lot of players with multiple position eligibility. Some eligibility is based on MLB reports that they will move to that position and eventually earn that eligibility.
*** Replacement Player: .330 OBP/ .150 ISO/ 100 wRC+
(Proj Rank Overall is a ranking of their projections compared to every offensive player in Baseball)
The Elite
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers (Proj Rank Overall: 49)
The only reason not to draft Will Smith as the first catcher overall in fantasy is fear of small sample sizes. In reality, Smith’s 97 games and less than 350 plate appearances is not exactly rock solid proof of a sure fire fantasy player, but for this exercise it’s hard to ignore the potential. Drafting catchers is always a crap shoot in fantasy, but with Will Smith the upside of a 25 year old catcher on one of the most stacked rosters in the league, it’s more like a 3 sided die (that would make craps easier right?). With just under 200 plate appearances in 2019, Smith had the 3rd best ISO among catchers and the 3rd best wRC+. When he was the official starting catcher for the World Series Dodgers in 2020, Smith was the best catcher in OBP and wRC+, and finished 2nd in ISO. The guy can rake and will look to only improve in the upcoming season.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox (Proj Rank Overall: 51) (1B Eligible)
If you’re worried about the inexperience of Will Smith, then look no farther than the guy Smith replaced on the Dodgers, Yasmani Grandal. Grandal is pound for pound the best offensive catcher in baseball, a catcher that hits for power, but still has an elite ability to get on base. The only reason he ranks below Smith is that Grandal just turned 32, and the older a catcher gets the riskier his production falls off a cliff. Grandal, on a loaded Chicago White Sox squad, is not a risk for such a drop, even in his worst year of his career (2017) Grandal hit 22 home runs with an above average (for catchers) .308 on base percentage.
Sean Murphy, Oakland A’s (Proj Rank Overall: 143)
Another small sample wunderkind, Sean Murphy blasted onto the scene as the Oakland A’s starting catcher in 2020 to the tune of a .364 OBP (3rd amongst catchers), 132 wRC+ (6th among catchers) and a 17.1% walk rate (1st amongst catchers). Like Smith, Murphy is the rarest of prospects, a young hard hitting catcher, unlike Smith, Murphy has a less exciting team playing around him. Even with conservative projections, Murphy looks to be above average in every metric that helps accumulate counting stats in fantasy.
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs (Proj Rank Overall: 80)
Drafting Willson Contreras high in order or in price depends how you feel Contreras bounces back from a middling 2020 season. The argument against the entire 2020 season is that a lot of players are able to balance out a mediocre start within the 102 remaining games in the season, but alas they’re the only stats we have to analyze from 2020. Contreras dropped 100 points in ISo and 28 in WRc+ from 19-20, while still being below average in walk rate (8.9), but those drops came from being in top 6 in both those categories in 2019. Contreras has the track record of being a great fantasy catcher, but it’s his fluctuating year to year stats that put him at 4.
J. T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies (Proj Rank Overall: 76)
J. T. Realmuto is arguably the most athletic catcher in the league, but that doesn’t really show up in my player profiles. Particularly Realmuto’s extreme advantage versus every other catcher in the stolen bases category that makes him more valuable in fantasy. What has always made Realmuto impressive though is the power he combines with his speed. Realmuto has an above average ISo and has finished top 9 among catchers in the category the last 2 years. A slight injury risk, Realmuto is expected to miss most of Spring training due to a broken hand, Realmuto is about to turn 30 (March 18th, my mom’s birthday), and just got paid, those are the only risks.
The Question Tier
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (Proj Rank Overall: 139)
Salvador Perez goes against all logic, continually he finds himself in the basement of walk rates and on base percentage, yet also is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, Perez is like the anti Moneyball player (ironically he’s actually a lot like Carlos Pena). Coming back from an injury-ended 2019 season, Perez did what he always does in 2020, finishing 33rd among catchers in walk rate (1.9!), but first in ISo (.300!) and second in wRC+ (161) amongst catchers. Each year, I have ignored him, believing that the law of averages would eventually catch up to the guy who besides last year hasn’t had an OBP above .300 since 2013, but he continues to be a top 10 fantasy catcher to spite me.
Alex Avila, Washington Nationals (Proj Rank Overall: 180)
Outlier meet world, world meet outlier, Avila is not even expected to start for the Washington Nationals this year (though some reports say that the Nats envision a 90-70 games split between Yan Gomes and him), so why would you draft him in fantasy? When Alex Avila does play, he gets on base. With catchers, that’s not always a guarantee, but Alex Avila has an elite batter’s eye, finishing 1st in walk rate amongst catchers the last two years and top 8 in OBP those seasons. In what I call the “Chris Ianneta Theorem”, I believe that it’s better for your fantasy team in the long run to sacrifice at bats to go with a steady back- up catcher. Are the 3 extra home runs and 7 rbis worth pulling down your team BA/OBP?
Austin Nola, San Diego Padres (Proj Rank Overall: 184) (1B, 2B Eligible)
“Can he repeat it?” is a key question in a lot of the players in this tier, none more so than Austin Nola. Nola was brought up to Seattle two years ago as a 29 year old back up first basemen, best known as Aaron Nola’s brother, but became surprisingly the biggest trade piece at last year’s deadline. What makes Nola really important in fantasy is his multiple position eligibility after he started catching again. Last year Nola was a huge surprise finishing with a .353 OBP and 126 wRC+ good for 9th and 8th respectively amongst catchers. His abbreviated 2019 season (267 PAs) shows that Nola has some pedigree to continue at that pace, and playing for Padres makes Nola extremely attractive as a fantasy catcher.
Travis D’Arnaud, Atlanta Braves (Proj Rank Overall: 132)
Which Travis D’Arnaud would you be drafting, is it the guy who had a .386 OBP and 133 wRC+ from last year? Or the guy whose last two full seasons in the majors (17 and 19) combined for a .301 OBP and a 96 wRC+? It helps that the Braves look to have a pretty good line-up around him and very little competition for the job, but D’arnaud has the track record of a guy who had a great first half to last season without the chance of evening out.
Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins ( Proj Rank Overall: 120)
Can he bounce back? Garver has the distinction of having a full season of amazing stats as compared to the co-vid shortened ones of Will Smith and Sean Murphy. Garver lost almost all of 2020 to an intercostal injury, but in 2019 Garver established himself as an offensive force finishing first in ISO and wRC+ and 2nd in OBP amongst catchers. He’s 31 now coming off injury and looking at a time share with Ryan Jeffers, but could he be worth the risk?
Curt Casali, San Francisco Giants (Proj Rank Overall: 230)
When will the Giants figure out that Buster Posey is no longer viable as a catcher in professional baseball? It’s hard to put a catcher out to pasture, particularly a catcher that won your franchise 3 world series championships, but the time has come. Curt Casali had a great season in 2020 while Posey chose to opt out, with a .366 OBP and 130 wRC+. If allowed a bulk share of the catching at bats, Casali is nothing special, but he draws walks and has some offensive upside.
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees ( Proj Rank Overall: 112)
Gary Sanchez is the biggest mystery of all at the catcher position, his floor is quite low, but his ceiling is so high. It’s as likely that Sanchez loses the starting job for the Yankees as it is that he wins the Silver Slugger for best offensive catcher. Sanchez, despite an OBP under 320 in the last 3 seasons, with an atrocious .253 in 2020 (even with a respectable 10% walk rate), has elite power when he actually puts wood on the ball. With the line-up around him, if Sanchez is able to put together a season like he has in the past could end up much higher in these rankings.
Edge of Draftable
Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins (Proj Rank Overall: 120)
Jeffers is blessed with youth and an inside track to the starting catcher’s job with the Minnesota Twins. Starting a majority of 2020, Jeffers put up respectable numbers, finishing 8th in OBP and 10th in wRC+ amongst catchers, with Garver, the pair look to be a respectable back-stop duo.
Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks ( Proj Rank Overall: 190)
Going into 2020, Carson Kelly looked like a sleeper candidate for a top 5 catcher after posting above average numbers in 2019, finishing 7th in ISO and OBp among catchers. It did not go as planned. Kelly ended up dropping in every conceivable metric, in rank alone he dropped 26 spots in walk rate (from 3rd to 29th among catchers) and 15 spots in wRC+ (12th to 27th among catchers). Now his starting job is questionable, as the Diamondbacks await prospect Daulton Varsho to take it.
James McCann, New York Mets (Proj Rank Overall: 239)
The Mets are looking for stability and veteran leadership from their backstop to help anchor their elite rotation, which is great for them, but not great for fantasy purposes. McCann had a great season last year in the shortened time frame, but that is the outlier to his entire stat profile. He has middling power and below average on base skills, which can help keep your team afloat in times of crisis but does little in sexiness.
2 Catcher Leagues or Platoons
Jason Castro, Houston Astros (Proj Rank Overall: 227)
Castro has a top ten walk rate but little else to add to an offense. He gets bonus points for playing for a probably dynamic Houston offense, but loses points for platooning with Martin Maldonado.
Wilson Ramos, Detroit Tigers ( Proj Rank Overall: 201)
The Water Buffalo, as Tony Kornheiser refers to him, continues to be a consistently good baseball player (6th and 2nd in OBP among catchers in 19 and 20). His ever increasing age (turns 34 in August), injury issues (missing most of 2017 and 2018), and his employment (the dreadful looking Tigers), show there’s not much to see with Wilson other than as an injury replacement.
Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee Brewers (Proj Rank Overall: 196)
Omar Narvaez got sent to Milwaukee after a great season with the Seattle Mariners where he ended up 4th in OBP and 7th in wRC+ among catchers. His 2020 season did not go nearly as well, although Narvaez kept his above average batting eye (9th in walk rate), he regressed in every other aspect. On a pretty fun Brewers team, Narvaez has a better chance of being a sleeper than anyone else in this tier, but it’s not a great chance.
Tom Murphy, Seattle Mariners (Proj Rank Overall: 218)
As part of a pair with Narvaez, Tom Murphy had an extremely impressive 2019 season, but lost most of 2020 to injury. Murphy is not expected to get all of the playing time at catcher for the Mariners this year nor is he expected to finish 6th among catchers in ISo and 5th in wRC+. Yet if he does, he could be a nice insurance policy to platoon with someone else.
Scraping the Bottom
Christian Vasquez, Boston Red Sox (Proj Rank Overall: 212)
Definition of middling catcher.
Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays (Proj Rank Overall: 113)
Jansen is interesting in that the projections have him much higher than any of his previous actual stats have ever achieved. Jansen is young, but was handed the starting job in 2019 and hasn’t particularly lived up to any of the prospect chatter that was thrust upon him. Complicating the matter is top prospect Alejandro Kirk waiting in the wings.
Pedro Severino, Baltimore Orioles (Proj Rank Overall: 234)
Along with Chance Sisco, they combine for a relatively passable platoon unit for the Orioles, making catcher pretty low on their priority list, but leaving Oriole catchers even lower on your fantasy list.
Max Stassi, Los Angeles Angels (Proj Rank Overall: 217)
Actually a little better than expected last year, but nothing noteworthy except for a deeeeeeeeep sleeper possibility.
Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds (Proj Rank Overall: 243)
Two Time Gold Glove Winner.
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (Proj Rank Overall: 194) (1B eligible)
Not the guy you remember.
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